中国利用弹道导弹摧毁一颗属于自己的绕轨道飞行卫星，并且很明显获得了成功。这一事件发出了一个信号，那就是其日益上升的军事力量，已经开始对美国在太空的霸权发起挑战，而那是一个有很多人认为对国家安全的重要性不断上升的领域。
上周所进行的这次反卫星武器试验，北京在周五既不证实也不否认，并不理会铺天盖地的新闻报道和外交质询。一位东亚问题专家觉得，这是中国自十多年前向台湾近海发射试验导弹以来，最具刺激性的军事行动。与台湾那次不同，这次事件的影响直接作用于美国，这个空间领域唯一的超级强权身上。 作者：约瑟夫·卡恩 翻译：葛甲
发表于 2007 .1. 20
通过冗长的白皮书、不知疲倦的外交斡旋和慷慨的援助政策，中国官员近年来尽力把自己的国家塑造成一种崭新的全球性大国形象，让世人觉得他们对别的国家只有善意，而不是像美国那样。
但有些分析家认为，这次试验说明了现实更为复杂。中国潮水般汹涌而来的国家财富，合理合法的安全需求，以及一个不透明的军事官僚体系，也许都被用来掩饰政府对于“和平崛起”的承诺。
“这是中国的另一面，也就是他们通常掩饰在深处的“硬实力”一面。”台湾的中国军事专家林仲频如是说，“他们谈论更多的是和平与外交，但在毁灭性高科技能力领域的发展脚步上，却一点也没有放慢。”
日本、韩国以及澳大利亚是那一地区敦促中国对此次试验作出解释的几个国家。这次试验如果是真的，那中国就成为继美国和苏联之后，有能力击落太空物体的第三大国。
中国的外交部和国防部拒绝对此次试验的报道加以评论，而这些报道，其来源都是美国情报系统的数据和资料。外交部发言人刘建超，只是阐述了中国反对在太空领域使用武器。他对路透社记者说：“中国将不会参加任何形式的外太空军备竞赛。”
中国对于此次试验的沉默，更加显示了其现代化军事力量发展之迅速，尤其是第二炮兵部队。这支部队负责弹道导弹项目，不与外界发生任何联系，隐密性强，直接向军队最高统帅，执政共产党的总书记胡锦涛报告。
拥有能打击或摧毁卫星的武器，被认为是中国非官方不对称战争学说的一个组成部分。中国的军事战略专家曾著书提到过，军事力量应运用相关的既经济且具有高度破坏性的技术，来对可能的武装冲突中装备精良和训练有素的美军造成阻碍，例如在台湾海峡。
五角大楼在军事通讯、情报系统和导弹导航中广泛运用卫星，有些中国专家就此展开辩论，那就是，摧毁或毁坏美国的空间卫星是否能让美军变得步履蹒跚。
然而，就在中国对于此类武器的研究和发展还不为人所知的时候，摧毁一颗卫星的试验就已明白放在世人面前，让许多分析家大吃一惊。
“如果这得到完全确认，那可真是一个非常重要的事件，很有可能因此而重塑中美之间的关系。”艾伦·贝姆，澳大利亚国防部的一位前官员这样说道。“这次试验要做起来是很复杂的，而积极地去做这次试验，意味着我们将看见一种程度不同的威胁。
十五年来，即便除去通货膨胀因素，中国的军费开支也一直在以几乎两位数的速度增长。中国已经开始配置高端的潜水艇、飞机以及反舰导弹，而五角大楼认为这些武器具有进攻性用途。
然而除了少数几次明显的特例之外，北京避免了引发尖锐的刺激，以免使美国和日本更多关注本国某些官员把中国视为潜在威胁的看法。
中国领导人强调，他们要关注的是来自国内的挑战，愿意把他们的能源与资源集中于经济发展之上。他们说要奉行一种高度依赖外国投资，开放贸易和维持友好对外关系的政策。
中国否认了打算开发空间武器的意图，尖锐地批评美国研制空基导弹防御系统。这营造出一种氛围，使得亚洲国家能够联合起来和平地发展空间技术。
上个月中国出版并大力宣传了一本白皮书，其中阐述了中国的军事战略，强调了太空必须保持非军事化的观点。这本白皮书上写道：“中国将沿着和平发展的道路走下去决不退缩，并一贯坚持外太空是全人类的共同财富。”
诸如此类的表述，与人为宣传没有差别。但乔纳森·博拉克，一位纽伯特海军学院的中国问题专家却说：当中国需要完善其战略能力，如远程导弹与核武器时，中国的军事力量确实是在小心翼翼地行事，以避免引起美国的恐慌。
他说：“他们已经提到了反卫星武器的事情。但我们总是认为，这种威胁是模糊的，也许中国是需要这么说才说的。那么当一个真正的试验出现的时候，我们该怎么往下盘算呢？”
有些分析家认为，这其中一个可能的动机也许是触动布什政府，达成一个禁止外太空武器发展的条约。俄罗斯和中国已经提出了这样一个条约，但布什总统却拒绝了这些呼吁，同时还制定了一项政策，寻求保留“在太空行动的自由”。
中国官员对此曾警告过，如果华盛顿不改变路线，一场太空军备竞赛将会发生。
去年六月在维也纳举行了一次关于利用太空的联合国会议，中国外交部官员唐国强，把这称为一项“令某些国家”不安的政策。
他说：“外太空是人类的共同财产，外太空军事化注定要引发军备竞赛，由此导致的后果是使外太空变为军事对峙的新舞台。”这些话是来自官方纪录的抄本。
海军军事学院的博拉克先生说：即便如此，如果中国希望这种新武器的出现能够得到华盛顿正面反应的话，那他们很有可能打错算盘了。
“很显然，华盛顿的很多人会发现，这正好证实了中国威胁论的观点。”博拉克先生说。“这能够很有效地平息对此观点的不同看法，迫使美国采取新的步骤对抗中国。”
其他一些分析家也认为，这次试验也许更多地是为了检验经过多年发展的科技力量，而与那种冷战式的谈判策略没什么关系。
这些分析家说：中国保持了一个最小限度的核武库，这完全可以对敌人造成足够伤害，抵御任何先发制人的打击。但在北京的一些人曾辩解过：美国导弹拦截技术的日益先进，加上与卫星导航和监视技术的紧密结合，威胁到了中国有限核武库的生存能力。
这也许促使了二炮部队向外显示，他们有办法保护固定的导弹发射地点，还可以通过展示自己有摧毁美国卫星的方法，以确保中国的报复能力。
在每年十一月举行的珠海武器展上，广东的信息时报和其他几家国有媒体，曾采访了一位没有表露身份的军官，他宣称中国“已经完全具备了进行二次打击的能力”。分析家也认为，中国能够保护自己的军事报复力量，因为他们已经能够摧毁外太空的卫星。
美国官员已经注意到了这些进展。本月，陆军少将甘恩·麦克尔·迈普斯在国会作证指出，中国和俄罗斯正在联合研制利用激光和导弹摧毁美国卫星的系统。去年夏天，国家测绘局官员唐纳·克尔告诉记者，中国曾使用一种陆基的激光“照射或聚焦”一颗美国的卫星，这也许是为利用激光武器摧毁美国卫星而迈出的第一步。
澳大利亚军事专家贝恩先生说：“中国在所有的军事领域中，都表现得越来越自信，现在还远没有到了要承认美国是空间唯一霸主的时候。
A New Player at Star Wars
By JOSEPH KAHN
Published: January 20, 2007
BEIJING, Jan. 19 — China’s apparent success in destroying one of its own orbiting satellites with a ballistic missile signals that its rising military intends to contest American supremacy in space, a realm many here consider increasingly crucial to national security.
The test of an antisatellite weapon last week, which Beijing declined to confirm or deny Friday despite widespread news coverage and diplomatic inquiries, was perceived by East Asia experts as China’s most provocative military action since it testfired missiles off the coast of Taiwan more than a decade ago.
Unlike in the Taiwan exercise, the message this time was directed mainly at the United States, the sole superpower in space.
With lengthy white papers, energetic diplomacy and generous aid policies, Chinese officials have taken pains in recent years to present their country as a new kind of global power that, unlike the United States, has only good will toward other nations.
But some analysts say the test shows that the reality is more complex. China has surging national wealth, legitimate security concerns and an opaque military bureaucracy that may belie the government’s promise of a “peaceful rise.”
“This is the other face of China, the hard power side that they usually keep well hidden,” said Chong-Pin Lin, an expert on China’s military in Taiwan. “They talk more about peace and diplomacy, but the push to develop lethal, high-tech capabilities has not slowed down at all.”
Japan, South Korea and Australia are among the countries in the region that pressed China to explain the test, which if real would make it the third power, after the United States and the Soviet Union, to shoot down an object in space.
China’s Foreign and Defense Ministries declined to comment on reports of the test, which were based on United States intelligence data. Liu Jianchao, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, would say only that China opposed using weapons in space. “China will not participate in any kind of arms race in outer space,” he told Reuters.
China’s silence on the test underscores how much its rapidly modernizing military — perhaps especially the Second Artillery forces, in charge of its ballistic missile program — remains isolated and secretive, answering only to President Hu Jintao, who heads the military as well as the ruling Communist Party.
Having a weapon that can disable or destroy satellites is considered a component of China’s unofficial doctrine of asymmetrical warfare. China’s army strategists have written that the military intends to use relatively inexpensive but highly disruptive technologies to impede the better-equipped and better-trained American forces in the event of an armed conflict — over Taiwan, for example.
The Pentagon makes extensive use of satellites for military communications, intelligence and missile guidance, and some Chinese experts have argued that damaging its space-based satellite infrastructure could hobble American forces.
Yet while China’s research and development of such weapons has been well known, the apparent decision to test-fire an antisatellite weapon came as a surprise to many analysts.
“If this is fully corroborated, it is a very significant event that is likely to recast relations between the United States and China,” said Allan Behm, a former official in Australia’s Defense Ministry. “This was a very sophisticated thing to do, and the willingness to do it means that we’re seeing a different level of threat.”
China’s military expenditures have been growing at nearly a double-digit pace, even after adjusting for inflation, for 15 years. China has begun to deploy sophisticated submarines, aircraft and antiship missiles that the Pentagon says could have offensive uses.
Yet with a few notable exceptions, Beijing has avoided sharp provocations that could prompt the United States or Japan to focus more on what some officials in each country regard as a potential threat.
Chinese leaders emphasize that they are preoccupied with domestic challenges and intend to focus their energy and resources on economic development, a policy they say depends heavily on cross-border investment, open trade and friendly foreign relations.
The country has denied that it intends to develop space weapons and sharply criticized the United States for experimenting with a space-based missile defense system. It forged a coalition of Asian countries to jointly develop peaceful space-based technologies.
Last month it published and heavily promoted a white paper on military strategy that emphasized its view that space must remain weapon-free. “China is unflinching in taking the road of peaceful development and always maintains that outer space is the common wealth of mankind,” the paper said.
Some of such talk amounts to little more than propaganda. But Jonathan Pollack, a China specialist at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I., says the Chinese military does in fact act cautiously when it comes to improving its strategic capabilities, like long-range missiles and nuclear weapons, to avoid causing alarm in the United States.
“They have talked about antisatellite weapons,” he said. “But we have always thought that the threat was ambiguous and that China probably wanted it that way. So what was the calculation to go ahead with an actual test?”
Some analysts suggested that one possible motivation was to prod the Bush administration to negotiate a treaty to ban space weapons. Russia and China have advocated such a treaty, but President Bush rejected those calls when he authorized a policy that seeks to preserve “freedom of action” in space.
Chinese officials have warned that an arms race could ensue if Washington did not change course.
At a United Nations conference in Vienna last June on uses of space, a Chinese Foreign Ministry official, Tang Guoqiang, called the policies of “certain nations” disconcerting.
“Outer space is the common heritage of mankind, and weaponization of outer space is bound to trigger off an arms race, thus rendering outer space a new arena for military confrontation,” he said, according to an official transcript of his remarks.
Even so, Mr. Pollack, of the Naval War College, said that if China hoped that demonstrating a new weapon of this kind would prompt a positive response in Washington, they most likely miscalculated.
“Very frankly, many people in Washington will find that this validates the view of a China threat,” Mr. Pollack said. “It could well end up backfiring and forcing the U.S. to take new steps to counter China.”
Other analysts said the test might have more to do with proving a technology under development for many years than a cold-war-style negotiating tactic.
China maintains a minimal nuclear arsenal that could inflict enough damage on an enemy to guard against any pre-emptive strike, these analysts said. But the increasing sophistication of American missile interceptors, which are linked to satellite surveillance, threatens the viability of China’s limited nuclear arsenal, some in Beijing have argued.
That may have prompted the Second Artillery to show that it had the means to protect fixed missile sites and ensure China’s retaliatory capacity by showing that it could take out American satellites.
At the annual military fair in Zhuhai, held in November, the Guangdong-based newspaper Information Times and several other state-run media outlets carried a short interview with an unidentified military official boasting that China had “already completely ensured that it has second-strike capability.” The analyst said China could protect its retaliatory forces because it could destroy satellites in space.
American officials have also noted the development. This month, Lt. Gen. Michael Mapes of the Army testified before Congress that China and Russia were working on systems to hit American satellites with lasers or missiles. And over the summer, the director of the National Reconnaissance Office, Donald M. Kerr, told reporters that the Chinese had used a ground-based laser to “paint,” or illuminate, an American satellite, a possible first step to using lasers to destroy satellites.
“China is becoming more assertive in just about every military field,” said Mr. Behm, the Australian expert. “It is not going to concede that the U.S. can be the hegemon in space forever.”
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